A Grim Statistical History
Teams that take a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically dominated. Out of 28 series where a team has gone up 3-0, 27 have emerged victorious. The only anomaly came in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Notably, 20 of those series ended in sweeps.
The Florida Panthers are on the cusp of sweeping the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 out of those 28 series have concluded in no more than five games. Despite the daunting odds, the Oilers still believe in their chances.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton did show some fight in the third period of Thursday’s game, getting gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod to cut the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in what was a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Edmonton's downfall came during a nightmarish 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida netted three goals. The Oilers had just tied the game at 1-1 thanks to a breakaway goal from Warren Foegele. However, a turnover by goaltender Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the crowd at 9:12.
It was soon 3-1 at 13:57, as relentless forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover, which Sam Bennett converted into his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, finalizing a 2-on-1 opportunity that started from deep inside Edmonton’s attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton's mistakes piled up, but the goals for their star players did not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have all found the net. However, the Oilers’ five leading scorers in the playoffs—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have failed to score.
These five players also anchor the Oilers' power play, which has been stymied by Florida's penalty kill, currently a perfect 10-for-10 in the series. The Oilers’ power play entered the series with a success rate of over 37%, the best in the postseason. Although McDavid has three assists to his name in this series, contributing to three of Edmonton's four goals, the other star players have yet to score a single point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
"Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Leon Draisaitl.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," he added.
"It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," said goaltender Stuart Skinner.
Coach Kris Knoblauch also saw glimmers of hope: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room."
He emphasized the team’s resilience: "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Summing up the sentiments, Skinner said, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl concluded with resolve: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."