The New York Yankees are on the cusp of something special this season, sporting a commendable record of 73-53. They find themselves trailing the Baltimore Orioles by a mere half-game in the hotly contested AL East. With the third-best record in the league, the Yankees are certainly in a strong position. However, their form since July 1, going 19-21, highlights the team's inconsistency in recent weeks.
During the same period, the Orioles haven't fared much better, posting a 21-22 record. Despite the proximity in standings, these two teams have exhibited different trajectories, particularly when scrutinizing their bullpens. The Yankees, known for a robust bullpen ranked in the top 10 in ERA and win probability added, have found their Achilles heel in closer Clay Holmes.
Holmes' Struggles
Holmes has had a torturous season, leading Major League Baseball in blown saves. His latest setback came during the Little League Classic against the Cleveland Guardians, a game where the Yankees eventually succumbed 9-5 in 12 innings. This marked Holmes' tenth blown save of the season, a dubious distinction that stands as the highest for a Yankee since Dave Righetti's 13 in 1987. Despite the struggles, Holmes boasts a respectable 2.82 ERA and an impressive 67.6% ground ball rate across 40 innings.
Holmes was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2021, and initial expectations were high. However, his journey this season has been turbulent, starting with a blown save on April 3. Throughout the season, he has surrendered critical leads, such as giving up a three-run lead against the Seattle Mariners on May 20 and allowing a game-tying two-run homer to Masataka Yoshida on July 5. The Yankees' dismal 3-7 record in games where Holmes has blown a save underscores the impact of these struggles.
Manager Aaron Boone remains optimistic. “He’s been unfortunate. He hasn’t made a pitch in a couple of spots where he could, but based on the way he’s thrown the ball the entirety of this year, really you would expect him to have success moving forward. That’s my expectation,” Boone commented. Despite Boone's positivity, the manager is keeping his options open. “I will leave [save situations] open and try and put these guys in places where they match up really well,” he remarked, hinting at a more flexible bullpen approach going forward.
Strength in the Setup Role
One of the bright spots in the Yankees' bullpen has been setup man Luke Weaver, who has emerged as New York’s most reliable reliever this season. Weaver's consistency has been a stabilizing force, often bridging the gap to Holmes. Additionally, the acquisition of Mark Leiter Jr. from the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline was aimed at bolstering the bullpen. However, Leiter has struggled to find his footing, allowing seven runs and 23 baserunners over 9 1/3 innings in pinstripes.
The Playoff Push
As the Yankees aim to overtake the Orioles and solidify their playoff position, Holmes' ability to rebound could be a critical factor in determining the team's fate in the closing weeks of the season. The Yankees' bullpen, despite its overall strong metrics, cannot afford further late-game faltering if they wish to maintain their playoff standing. A turnaround in Holmes' fortune could serve as a much-needed catalyst for the team as they navigate the final stretch of the regular season.
With each game growing increasingly consequential, the Yankees will need to rely on a collective effort from their bullpen to shore up any vulnerabilities. The road ahead is challenging, but with the right adjustments and a bit of luck, the Yankees could find themselves right where they aim to be come October.