As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon, fans are in for a potentially electrifying matchup. The game, set for 2:20 PM ET, features two teams in contrasting positions but both hungry for a win.
Justin Steele will take the mound for the Cubs. Steele has been solid this season, making 14 starts and posting a commendable ERA of 2.71. Although his record stands at 2-3, he has shown resilience and quality, with eight of his starts deemed "quality starts." In his most recent outing, Steele delivered a masterclass, pitching seven scoreless innings. His home ERA is 3.16, slightly higher than his road ERA of 2.96, hinting at a comfort pitching away from home that isn't always present at Wrigley.
On the other side, Ryne Nelson will start for the Diamondbacks, carrying a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. Nelson's WHIP stands at 1.42, with a batting average against of .296. While his numbers might not jump off the page, he has been reliable, surrendering no more than three earned runs in his last six starts.
The Diamondbacks enter the game as slight money line favorites at -106. With an overall record of 49-48 and sitting second in the competitive NL West, they trail the Dodgers by seven games. The Diamondbacks have had a commendable run on the road, boasting a 4-1 record in their last five away games. Their offense has been a driving force, averaging five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been pivotal, hitting 22 and 19 homers, respectively.
However, the Diamondbacks face a challenge in moving past their recent heartbreak against the Blue Jays. Arizona squandered a seven-run lead to lose 8-7, a game that underscored both their offensive firepower and bullpen vulnerabilities.
The Cubs, standing fifth in the NL Central with a 47-51 record and trailing the Brewers by 8.5 games, are looking for consistency to climb the standings. The Cubs have won seven of their last ten games, including a solid 4-1 record in their last five home games. Despite a divisional record of 12-21, the Cubs have shown fight, particularly as home underdogs, with a 9-5 record in those situations this year.
Nico Hoerner has been a standout for the Cubs, hitting .378 over his last nine games, while Christopher Morel has added power with three homers in his last eight games. Chicago's offense averages 4.2 runs per game, and the team collectively holds a batting average of .235, numbers they'll aim to improve upon against Nelson and the Diamondbacks.
Today's over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. Both teams are riding three-game over streaks, with a notable 84.5% of Diamondbacks games surpassing this line. The Cubs aren't far behind, with 67.3% of their games eclipsing the 7.5 run threshold. Historically, when the over/under is set at 7.5, the Diamondbacks hold a 6-4 record, while the Cubs are 12-10.
Projections for today’s game suggest Justin Steele will notch six strikeouts and concede fewer runs than Ryne Nelson, who is anticipated to rack up four strikeouts. The game is forecasted to be a tight contest with a predicted score of Diamondbacks edging out the Cubs, 5-4.
Fans can expect a compelling battle on the mound and at the plate as both teams look to secure a crucial victory. With the stakes high and Wrigley Field set to host what promises to be an engaging contest, this afternoon's matchup is one to watch.